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熊市研究案例 – 2019 第二季度研究报告

2019年7月24日,美股又突破新高 – 截至16:00收盘,标普500指数上涨14.09点,或0.47%,报3019.56点;纳指涨70.10点,或0.85%,报8321.50点;道指受波音和卡特彼勒财报拖累,跌79.22点,或-0.29%,报27269.97点。 个人认为,美股现在泡沫巨大,上涨完全是由于降息预期带动,并非由于基本面有多好。在推特上看到Crescat Capital的二季度宏观研究报告,读后深有同感。 主题提取:看多贵金属,看空美股,看空人民币,港币,净空头风险下降 正文: 我们认为,基于Crescat 16因子宏观模型中的时间和不平衡指标的综合,我们有机会利用商业周期中的下滑趋势实现一些货币化(capitalize)。 US Equity Markets The downturn could be particularly brutal for US stocks because we are record late in a fading economic expansion and at historical high valuations relative to underlying fundamentals across a broad composite of eight measures that we follow at Crescat. 美国股票市场 对于美国股市而言,经济衰退可能特别残酷,因为我们在经济增长放缓的情况下创下历史新高,并且相对于我们在Crescat遵循的八项措施的广泛综合基础面上的历史严重高估。 We hear two opposing valuation arguments from bulls today: 1. P/E ratios are reasonable; and 2. Valuations remain attractive relative to interest rates. Let’s address them both. First off, P/Es often appear reasonable at business cycle peaks because that’s when earnings are their strongest. For i

How to download pictures from Baidu Image with python

With below script, you can download specific pictures to a folder. # coding: utf-8 import requests import os def getManyPages(keyword,pages): params=[] for i in range(30,30*pages+30,30): params.append({ 'tn': 'resultjson_com', 'ipn': 'rj', 'ct': 201326592, 'is': '', 'fp': 'result', 'queryWord': keyword, 'cl': 2, 'lm': -1, 'ie': 'utf-8', 'oe': 'utf-8', 'adpicid': '', 'st': -1, 'z': '', 'ic': 0, 'word': keyword, 's': '',

Python3 List index Method

Description The method index() returns the lowest index in list that obj appears. Syntax Following is the syntax for index() method − list.index(obj) Parameters obj − This is the object to be find out. Return Value This method returns index of the found object otherwise raise an exception indicating that value does not find. Example: Python 3.6.6 (v3.6.6:4cf1f54eb7, Jun 27 2018, 03:37:03) [MSC v.1900 64 bit (AMD64)] on win32 Type "copyright", "credits" or "license()" for more information. >>> testList = ['abc','foo','bar','woo','adc'] >>> print("Index of 'foo' is:%d"%testList.index('foo')) Index of 'foo' is:1 >>> print("Index for 'bar' is:%d"%testList.index('bar')) Index for 'bar' is:2 >>>

What kind of president does the United States need now?

Imagine if the Soviet Union still exists and, like the Communist China, the Soviets firmly control the power. Like the present China, the ideology does not allow any democratic ideas to exist. It launches a large-scale spy war and steals advanced Western technology. ..., for the United States, it is definitely a disaster, and the United States is no longer the only superpower; the United States has to maintain a large-scale military presence in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and South America in response to the Soviet threat. Fortunately, since President Ronald Reagan came to power, he has adopted a smart financial policy and cut off the financing channels of the Soviet Union. At the same time, he used oil weapons to form an alliance with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia increased oil production, causing oil prices to plummet from 35 US dollars per barrel. To the 12 dollars, the result is that the Soviet Union’s oil revenue has plummeted. Eventually, the Soviet economy was exhausted,

python3 string find method

Description It determines if string str occurs in string, or in a substring of string if starting index beg and ending index end are given. Syntax str.find(str, beg=0, end=len(string)) Parameters str − This specifies the string to be searched. beg − This is the starting index, by default its 0. end − This is the ending index, by default its equal to the length of the string. Return Value Index if found and -1 otherwise. Example: Python 3.6.6 (v3.6.6:4cf1f54eb7, Jun 27 2018, 03:37:03) [MSC v.1900 64 bit (AMD64)] on win32 Type "copyright", "credits" or "license()" for more information. >>> str1 = "This is a string to test the find method." >>> str2 = "string" >>> print(str1.find(str2)) 10 >>> print(str1.find(str2,10)) 10 >>> print(str1.find(str2,10+1)) -1 >>>

stock market has got rotten

The stock market is rotten. Despite the great uncertainty, the VIX is still low, no matter good news or bad news, the stock market keep growing. It is totally controlled by the Wall Street. The FED also has problem. Not like Alan Greenspan and many other President of FED, Jerome Powell has a strong boss, Trump, he insist the FED should cut interest rate. No president in history interfare FED like this ever. There is big possibility that FED compromise.

how to use Array.‎IndexOf(Array, Object) in C sharp

using System; using System.Collections.Generic; using System.Linq; using System.Text; using System.Threading.Tasks; namespace ARRAYINDEX {     class Program     {         static void Main(string[] args)         {             double[] numbers = { 15.05, 58.3, 22, 95.55, 177.2, 46.65, 0.85 };             double maxNumber = numbers.Max();             int indexOfMaxNumber = Array.IndexOf(numbers, maxNumber);             Console.WriteLine("The index of max number in the array is {0}", indexOfMaxNumber);             Console.Read();         }     } }