The idle Process

2019年7月24日，美股又突破新高 – 截至16:00收盘，标普500指数上涨14.09点，或0.47%，报3019.56点；纳指涨70.10点，或0.85%，报8321.50点；道指受波音和卡特彼勒财报拖累，跌79.22点，或-0.29%，报27269.97点。 个人认为，美股现在泡沫巨大，上涨完全是由于降息预期带动，并非由于基本面有多好。在推特上看到Crescat Capital的二季度宏观研究报告，读后深有同感。 主题提取：看多贵金属，看空美股，看空人民币，港币，净空头风险下降 正文： 我们认为，基于Crescat 16因子宏观模型中的时间和不平衡指标的综合，我们有机会利用商业周期中的下滑趋势实现一些货币化（capitalize）。 US Equity Markets The downturn could be particularly brutal for US stocks because we are record late in a fading economic expansion and at historical high valuations relative to underlying fundamentals across a broad composite of eight measures that we follow at Crescat. 美国股票市场 对于美国股市而言，经济衰退可能特别残酷，因为我们在经济增长放缓的情况下创下历史新高，并且相对于我们在Crescat遵循的八项措施的广泛综合基础面上的历史严重高估。 We hear two opposing valuation arguments from bulls today: 1. P/E ratios are reasonable; and 2. Valuations remain attractive relative to interest rates. Let’s address them both. First off, P/Es often appear reasonable at business cycle peaks because that’s when earnings are their strongest. For i

US President Trump’s tariff on China’s 200 billion US dollars has risen to 25%, which has caused the US-China trade war to heat up again. Although China has not yet resorted to counter-measures, experts believe that Beijing still holds three major counter-attack weapons, including The depreciation of the renminbi, the sale of US Treasury bonds, and the refusal to purchase US soybeans, etc. But the measures have to be taken carefully, otherwise they may hurt China itself. Weapon 1: RMB depreciation China can offset the impact of US tariffs on the Chinese economy through the depreciation of the renminbi. However, Wang Tao, the chief Chinese economist at UBS, pointed out that the depreciation of the RMB in 2015 caused capital outflows and also weakened domestic confidence. So China may have  concerns to use this weapon. Weapon 2: Selling US Treasury bonds China currently holds US$1.1 trillion in US Treasury bonds. As the biggest amount holder of most US debts, the reduction of US