个人认为，美股现在泡沫巨大，上涨完全是由于降息预期带动，并非由于基本面有多好。在推特上看到Crescat Capital的二季度宏观研究报告，读后深有同感。
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正文：
我们认为，基于Crescat 16因子宏观模型中的时间和不平衡指标的综合，我们有机会利用商业周期中的下滑趋势实现一些货币化（capitalize）。
US Equity Markets
The downturn could be particularly brutal for US stocks because we are record late in a fading economic expansion and at historical high valuations relative to underlying fundamentals across a broad composite of eight measures that we follow at Crescat.
美国股票市场
对于美国股市而言，经济衰退可能特别残酷，因为我们在经济增长放缓的情况下创下历史新高，并且相对于我们在Crescat遵循的八项措施的广泛综合基础面上的历史严重高估。
We hear two opposing valuation arguments from bulls today: 1. P/E ratios are reasonable; and 2. Valuations remain attractive relative to interest rates. Let’s address them both. First off, P/Es often appear reasonable at business cycle peaks because that’s when earnings are their strongest. For instance, back in mid-1929, prior to the stock market crash and Great Depression, S&P 500 real earnings per share (on a GAAP standard) had been growing at a unsustainably high 20% year-over-year rate, almost as high as the fleeting 21% growth we just had in 2018. Similarly, profit margins are cyclical. They top out at the peak of an expansion, making P/Es appear artificially low. US corporate profit margins in 2018 were the highest they have been since 1929. P/Es are always a potential value trap at the peak of a cycle. But today, P/Es are not even that cheap. Going all the way back to 1871, today we would have potentially the second highest P/E ratio ever for the S&P 500 at a market top prior to a recession, worse than 1929 and the housing bubble.
我们听到今天多头的两个反对估值论点：1。市盈率是合理的; 2.估值相对于利率仍然具有吸引力。让我们两个解决它们。首先，P / ES在商业周期高峰时经常显得合理，因为当收益最强时。例如，早在1929年中期，在股市崩盘和大萧条之前，标准普尔500指数每股实际收益（按照美国通用会计准则标准）一直在以不可持续的高20％同比增长，几乎同样高我们刚刚在2018年实现了21％的短暂增长。同样，利润率也是周期性的。它们在扩张的顶峰时达到顶峰，使得P / Es显得人为地低。 2018年美国公司的利润率是自1929年以来的最高水平.P / Es在一个周期的高峰期始终是一个潜在的价值陷阱。但今天，P / ES甚至还不那么便宜。一直追溯到1871年，今天我们可能在标准普尔500指数在经济衰退之前的市场上有可能是第二高的市盈率，比1929年和房地产泡沫更糟糕。
Tackling the second bull argument that low interest rates justify today’s high valuations, the flaw in this thinking is just as pronounced. The reality is that stocks have never been this expensive for how low the 10-year Treasury yield is today. It’s true that all else equal, low interest rates justify higher valuations. However, the lowest interest rates historically haven’t corresponded to the highest P/E markets because extremely depressed yields also signal fundamental problems in the economy. Ultra-low rate environments are often marked by highly leveraged economies where future growth is likely to be weak. Growth must also be discounted in the valuation formula.
解决第二个牛市论点，即低利率证明了今天的高估值，这种想法的缺陷同样明显。 现实情况是，由于今天的10年期国债收益率有多低，股票从未如此昂贵。 确实，所有其他条件相同，低利率证明了更高的估值。 然而，历史上最低利率与最高市盈率市场并不对应，因为极度低迷的收益率也是经济中的基本问题。 超低利率环境通常以高杠杆经济为特征，未来增长可能较弱。 增长也必须在估值公式中打折扣。
While many US equity indices have marginally broken out to new highs recently, they have done so in the face of weakening market internals. Equity indices are being propped up by a narrowing group of leaders. The deteriorating breadth is most evident in the NASDAQ Composite, home to today’s leading growth stocks. While the overall index has reached record levels, the number of declining stocks has significantly outpaced the number of advancing stocks since last September. The collapsing internals point to an exhausted bull market.
尽管许多美国股票指数近期已小幅突破至新高，但面对市场内部疲弱，它们已经做到了这一点。 股票指数正由一小部分领导人支撑。 纳斯达克综合指数的涨幅最为明显，纳斯达克综合指数是当今领先增长股的主场。 虽然总体指数已达到创纪录水平，但自去年9月以来，股票下跌的数量已远远超过推进股票的数量。 崩溃的内部结构指向疲惫的牛市。
Stocks are also rising in defiance of extremely low volume. On July 16th, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) had its lowest daily volume in almost 2 years. In a 15-daily average terms, volume is now as low as it was at the peak of the housing bubble and prior to the last two selloffs in 2018. Unusual calmness and breadth deterioration are not a good set up for record overvalued stocks.
股票虽然在上涨，交易量却处在极低位置。 7月16日，SPDR标准普尔500指数ETF（SPY）的日均成交量近两年来最低。 按平均每日15个月计算，交易量现在与房地产泡沫高峰期和2018年最后两次抛售之前一样低。不寻常的平静和广度恶化并不是创纪录的高估股票的良好设置。
The following chart is yet another illustration of how this recent rally in equities is running on empty, and again lacking substance. On July 15th, S&P 500 reached record levels, but only three sectors were at all-time highs. Market breadth today is faltering just as much as it did ahead of the last two recessions. In 2015, this was also the case, but back then only 20% of the yield curve was inverted. Now it’s close to 60%!
下面的图表再次说明了股市近期的反弹是如何在空头上运行，又是缺乏实质性的。 7月15日，标准普尔500指数创下历史新高，但只有三个板块处于历史高位。 今天的市场广度与过去两次经济衰退前的步伐一样摇摆不定。 在2015年，情况也是如此，但当时只有20％的收益率曲线被反转。 现在接近60％！
As we previously said, the unemployment rate has been one the most reliable contrarian indicators throughout history. It reaches a cyclical low prior to every recession since the 1970s. The year-over-year change, however, is what tends to confirm the turning points in the economy. Most of the times this rate shifted to positive, a market downturn followed. In this business cycle, the YoY change likely bottomed in late 2014 and it has now been flirting with the positive camp since then. However, other labor market indicators are already showing signs of weakening economic conditions. The Conference Board’s Jobs Hard to Get Index is one of them. It has recently spiked and is yet another classic late-cycle development in the economy.
正如我们之前所说，失业率一直是历史上最可靠的反向指标。 在20世纪70年代以来的每次经济衰退之前，它都达到了周期性的低点。 然而，同比变化往往会证实经济的转折点。 大多数时候，这一比率转为正值，随后出现市场低迷。 在这个商业周期中，同比变化可能在2014年底触底，现在它已经与积极的阵营调情。 然而，其他劳动力市场指标已显示出经济状况疲弱的迹象。 会议委员会的工作难以获得指数就是其中之一。 它最近飙升，是经济中另一个经典的后期发展。
Consumer surveys are also critical to identify the stage of the economy we are in today. It’s another great contrarian indicator as strong consumer confidence has an uncanny relationship with market tops. We’ve noted this before, but since the 1960s, every time the Conference Board index surpassed the 135 level, it coincided with the peak of the economic cycle. The same source also reports two components of this survey that differentiate between consumer’s present situation and future expectations. As John Hussman originally pointed out, the spread between these two sub-indices tends to reach an extreme prior to a recession. That’s usually caused by consumers’ future expectations starting to fall first. The University of Michigan also publishes a survey on consumer sentiment. That compared with the Conference Board index forms another important indicator. All previous declines from cyclical highs in the spread between these two indices led to recessions. This time, the spread is plunging after reaching record levels.
消费者调查对于确定我们今天的经济发展阶段也至关重要。这是另一个很好的反向指标，因为强大的消费者信心与市场顶部有着不可思议的关系。我们之前已经注意到这一点，但自20世纪60年代以来，每次会议局指数超过135水平时，它都与经济周期的高峰期相吻合。同一消息来源还报告了该调查的两个组成部分，它们区分了消费者的现状和未来的预期。正如约翰·哈斯曼（John Hussman）最初指出的那样，这两个分指数之间的差距在经济衰退之前趋于极端。这通常是由于消费者的未来预期首先开始下降。密歇根大学还发布了一项关于消费者情绪的调查。与会议局指数相比，这是另一个重要指标。之前所有这两个指数之间价差的周期性高点下跌导致经济衰退。这一次，价差在达到创纪录水平后大幅下跌。
Crescat’s robust calculation of percentage of inversions in the US yield curve remains at recession-signaling levels. Over 55% of all 44 spreads are now inverted, being just as much as it was at the peak of the tech and housing bubbles. Nevertheless, another important development in credit markets occurred in the first week of July. As show below, the US 30-year yield dropped below the upper bound of the federal funds rate (FFR) for the first time since the global financial crisis. It’s one more bearish signal that adds to Crescat’s fire hose of cycle-ending macro data. The same warning occurred ahead of the GFC, tech bust, Asian crisis, S&L crisis, and 1980’s double dip recessions. The only false signal was in 1986, but one could argue that it did ultimately lead to the 1987 crash. Above all, as of July 2nd, we had the entire US Treasury curve below the Fed overnight rate. Perhaps the bond market is trying to tell us something.
Crescat对美国收益率曲线中反转百分比的有力计算仍处于衰退信号水平。 在所有44个点差中，超过55％现在倒转，与科技和房地产泡沫的高峰时期一样多。 尽管如此，信贷市场的另一个重要发展是在7月的第一周。 如下图所示，美国30年期国债收益率自全球金融危机以来首次跌破联邦基金利率（FFR）的上限。 这是另一个看跌信号，它增加了Crescat的循环结束宏观数据的看跌信号。 在全球金融危机，技术泡沫破灭，亚洲危机，S＆L危机以及1980年的双底衰退之前发生了同样的警告。 唯一的错误信号是在1986年，但有人可能会说它最终导致了1987年的崩溃。 最重要的是，截至7月2日，我们的整个美国财政部曲线低于美联储隔夜利率。 也许债券市场试图告诉我们一些事情。
Cracks in the market are spreading and it could be pointing to a market meltdown. Copper, for instance, is now diverging from the S&P 500 by over 35% since September of 2017. Last time this separation reached similar extremes was at the September 2018 market peak. Dr. Copper is reputed to have a Ph.D. in economics because of its ability to help predict turning points in the global economy. Because of copper’s widespread applications — from homes and factories to electronics and power generation and transmission — strengthening or weakening demand for the red metal can be a leading indicator for the economy at large. The decline of the industrial metal itself doesn’t necessarily tell us enough to call for a downturn in the economic cycle. However, its deterioration versus other risk assets in combination with a litany of macro indicators adds conviction to our overall bearish thesis.
市场的裂缝正在蔓延，它可能指向市场崩溃。 例如，铜自2017年9月以来已从标准普尔500指数中脱离了超过35％。上次这种分离达到类似的极端时，是在2018年9月的市场高峰期。 铜博士被誉为拥有博士学位。 在经济学中，因为它有能力帮助预测全球经济的转折点。 由于铜的广泛应用 - 从家庭和工厂到电子和发电和输电 - 加强或削弱对红色金属的需求可以成为整个经济的领先指标。 工业金属本身的衰退并不一定足以说明经济周期的低迷。 然而，与其他风险资产相比，其恶化与一连串的宏观指标相结合，增加了我们整体看空论点的信念。
The US is the only equity market in the world to make new highs recently in US dollar terms. Every other G-20 index already peaked a long time ago, a troubling divergence. We believe the US stock market is likely to be the one to catch up to the downside.
美国是世界上唯一一个以美元计算最近创出新高的股票市场。 其他所有G-20指数在很久以前就达到了顶峰，这是一个令人不安的分歧。 我们认为美国股市很可能会掉头向下。
The US market is fundamentally and technically overvalued to an extreme. But, how much should we expect it to be down in a coming bear market? Just to get to mean historical valuations, it could be a 50% plunge. The problem is, a 50% decline would equate to the highest ever valuation at the depth of a bear market and recession in the US, so it could be a best-case scenario. That is how over-valued the US equity market is today! The downside in the market today is perhaps easiest to visualize in a logged version of the longest running US stock index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
从根本上说，美国市场在技术上被高估了。 但是，在即将到来的熊市中，我们应该期待多少呢？ 只是为了得出历史估值，它可能会下跌50％。 问题是，50％的跌幅等同于熊市深度和美国经济衰退时的最高估值，因此可能是最好的情况。 这就是今天美国股市的估值过高！ 今日市场的下跌可能最容易在美国最长的股票指数 - 道琼斯工业平均指数的记录版本中可视化。
Conventional wisdom is that the first Fed rate cut is bullish, but this was not true with the last two business cycles as we clearly show in the chart below. It will likely not be true in this one either because we are record late into the expansion at historic high valuations. It’s true that all else equal, monetary easing is fundamentally bullish for stocks and the economy, while tightening is bearish. The problem is that central bank policy works with a lag. The delayed reaction to Fed interest rate policy is why our macro model uses the 24-month trailing rate-of-change in the federal funds rate as one of our factors to forecast the economy and the stock market.
传统观点认为美联储首次降息是看涨的，但在过去的两个商业周期中并非如此，正如我们在下面的图表中清楚显示的那样。 这可能不是真的，因为我们在历史高估值的扩张后期创下纪录。 其他一切都是平等的，货币宽松政策对股市和经济来说基本看涨，而紧缩则看跌。 问题在于央行政策的滞后性。 对美联储利率政策的延迟反应是我们的宏观模型使用联邦基金利率的24个月追踪变动率作为我们预测经济和股市的因素之一。
The interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening of the last three years, are the substantial bearish macro drivers that have only now started to transmit into economic weakening in the US. Meanwhile, the Fed has also just acknowledged the deterioration in the overall global economy. We think the truth of the economic weakening matters more than the hope from imminent Fed easing. Only at the depths of the recession, when everyone else is panicking and dumping stocks that are already down substantially, should we get excited about Fed easing transmitting to a new bull market.
过去三年的加息和数量紧缩是大幅看跌的宏观驱动因素，这些驱动因素现在才开始转向美国的经济疲软。 与此同时，美联储也刚刚承认全球经济整体恶化。 我们认为经济疲软的真相比美联储即将放松的希望更为重要。 只有在经济衰退的深渊，当其他所有人都在恐慌并抛售已经大幅下跌的股票时，我们是否应该对美联储放松转向新牛市感到兴奋。
The Fed’s polices of near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing since the global financial crisis have created enormous asset bubbles in stocks and corporate credit. Investors’ speculative behavior is a natural reaction to cheap money and has played an integral role in inflating these bubbles. Just as asset prices rise in a positive feedback loop of easy credit, investor speculative behavior, consumer and business spending, so they decline in the opposite self-reinforcing fashion: credit defaults, credit tightness, investor risk aversion, and business and consumer retrenchment. Such is the natural ebb and flow of the business cycle.
自全球金融危机以来，美联储关于近零利率和量化宽松的政策已经在股票和企业信贷方面造成了巨大的资产泡沫。 投资者的投机行为是对廉价资金的自然反应，并在推动这些泡沫方面发挥了不可或缺的作用。 正如资产价格在宽松信贷，投资者投机行为，消费者和商业支出的积极反馈循环中上升，因此他们以相反的自我强化方式下降：信用违约，信贷紧缩，投资者风险规避以及商业和消费者紧缩。 这就是商业周期的自然起伏。
The property market in the US is also richly valued, in our view, though home prices are not as frothy relative to income and household debt as they were in the housing bubble. The big housing bubbles in the world today by these measures are in China, Hong Kong, Canada, and Australia.
在我们看来，美国房地产市场的价值也很高，尽管房价泡沫相对于收入和家庭债务而言并不像（过去2007年之前）房价泡沫那么大。 通过这些宽松措施，当今世界的大型房地产泡沫在中国，香港，加拿大和澳大利亚各地上演。
Because the US dollar is the largest fiat reserve currency, the Fed’s past accommodative policies has allowed other countries to pursue their own easy money schemes and accumulate record levels of debt. Across the globe, these levels are higher on average than they were prior to all major credit busts of the last 30 years.
由于美元是最大的法定储备货币，美联储过去的宽松政策已经允许其他国家实施自己的宽松货币计划并积累创纪录的债务水平。 在全球范围内，这些水平平均高于过去30年所有主要信贷危机前的水平。
China
We have written extensively about China’s currency and credit bubble in past letters. China was responsible for over 60% of global GDP growth since the global financial crisis. The country’s massive investments in non-productive infrastructure assets was financed on credit and created high GDP growth but failed to add wealth or debt-servicing capacity. China has created an enormous currency and credit bubble in the process. The problem is that its central planners accomplished this incredible economic growth through an unsustainable growth in fractional reserve bank credit. Since 2008, China’s banking system assets have grown 400% to USD 40 trillion!
我们在过去的信件中广泛撰写了有关中国货币和信贷泡沫的文章。 自全球金融危机以来，中国占全球GDP增长的60％以上。 该国对非生产性基础设施资产的大规模投资是通过信贷提供资金并创造了高GDP增长但未能增加财富或偿债能力。 中国在此过程中创造了巨大的货币和信贷泡沫。 问题在于其中央计划人员通过部分储备银行信贷的不可持续增长来实现这种令人难以置信的经济增长。 自2008年以来，中国的银行系统资产增长了400％，达到40万亿美元！（中国印刷的钱都到银行去了？银行资产膨胀实在厉害）
This insane level of expansion for a large economy was made possible because China’s communist leaders mandated high lending growth from its state-owned banks. At same time, they ignored the true write-down of non-performing loans.
由于中国的共产党领导人要求其国有银行实现高额贷款增长，这使得大型经济体的疯狂扩张成为可能。 同时，他们忽略了不良贷款的真实减记。
As a result, we believe the value of China’s banking system today is grossly mismarked. The Chinese financial system in our view is a Ponzi scheme poised to unravel and is likely to be a major contributor to the coming global economic downturn. The Chinese citizens are the primary creditors who could be on the line, but the rest of the world that has invested in China will almost certainly suffer with them.
因此，我们认为今天中国银行体系的价值被严重误导。 我们认为，中国的金融体系是一个庞大的计划，有望解决，并可能成为即将到来的全球经济衰退的主要因素。 中国公民会损失巨大，但在中国投资的世界其他国家几乎肯定会受到影响。
We believe the Chinese government will be forced to print money to recapitalize its banks and bail out its citizens to attempt to quell social unrest. The massive monetary dilution could lead to a currency crisis which is the lesson of almost every emerging market credit bubble in history from Latin America to Asia. Currency crisis is also the ultimate consequence of economic failure of centrally planned communism as we have learned from the Soviet Union to Venezuela.
我们认为中国政府将被迫印钞票，以对其银行进行资本重组，并挽救其公民，以试图平息社会动荡。 大规模的货币稀释可能导致货币危机，这是从拉丁美洲到亚洲历史上几乎每一个新兴市场信贷泡沫的教训。 货币危机也是中央计划共产主义经济失败的最终结果，正如我们从苏联向委内瑞拉所学到的那样。
Our outlook for both the Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar is extremely bearish and we are positioned accordingly in our global macro fund. The warning signs of the coming Chinese crisis are everywhere from the Trump administration’s year-long hardball on Chinese trade, to the recent Chinese government seizure of failed Baoshang Bank, to the current mass anti-Chinese Communist Party protests in Hong Kong.
我们对人民币和港元的前景极为悲观，因此我们在我们的全球宏观基金中配置了相应的仓位。 即将到来的中国危机的警告信号无处不在，从特朗普政府长达一年的中国贸易强硬，到最近中国政府查封失败的宝商银行，再到目前在香港发生的大规模反共抗议活动。
Precious Metals
Precious metals are one of the few pockets of this market offering tremendous value to hedge against extreme monetary policies, bursting asset bubbles, and record global leverage. We see this opportunity playing out across gold, silver and related mining stocks. Gold is the ultimate form of money with a long history of storing value for investors and outperforming risk assets during market downturns. In our view, a new wave of global fiat currency debasement polices is now in its early stages. Gold should become a core asset for those who believe in this macro development, but it is still widely under-owned today.
贵金属是该市场为数不多的口袋之一，为对冲极端货币政策，破坏资产泡沫和创纪录的全球杠杆提供巨大价值。 我们看到这个机会在黄金，白银和相关矿业股票中发挥作用。 黄金是最终形式的货币，在投资者存储价值方面有着悠久的历史，在市场低迷期间表现优于风险资产。 我们认为，新一轮的全球法定货币贬值政策目前尚处于初期阶段。 对于那些相信这一宏观发展的人来说，黄金应该成为核心资产，但它今天仍然普遍存在。
With the Fed shifting back to easing mode as the global economy is faltering, new fuel has ignited a precious metals fire. It is still very early in the game in our analysis. Rate cuts point to a new trend of declining real yields to drive precious metals higher even before inflation returns. Below we show seven-year trends in real rates and gold that have just reversed.
随着全球经济步履蹒跚，美联储重新回到宽松模式，新燃料的添加引发了贵金属的火热。 在我们的分析中，它仍处于游戏的早期阶段。 降息表明实际收益率下降的新趋势，即使在通胀回升之前推动贵金属走高。 下面我们将显示实际利率和黄金的七年趋势，这些趋势刚刚逆转。
Credit markets tend to serve as a bellwether for stocks and the economy, and rising yield curve inversions happen to be great times to buy gold and sell stocks. For instance, 3 and 5-year yields have recently dipped below Fed funds rate for the first time since the global financial crisis and the tech bust. As history has shown, this is bullish for the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio.
信贷市场往往是股市和经济的领头羊，而收益率曲线的反转正好是购买黄金和卖出股票的好时机。 例如，自全球金融危机和科技泡沫破裂以来，3年和5年期国债收益率最近跌破联邦基金利率。 历史证明，这对黄金与标准普尔500指数的比率是看涨的。
Another way to see how incredibly undervalued precious metals are relative to other risk assets is by looking at the relative performance. The commodities-to-S&P 500 ratio has just reached a fresh 50-year low. The last times we had such historic imbalances we were at the peak of the 2000 tech and the 1972 “Nifty Fifty” stock bubbles. If one uses a simpler version of this relationship, using the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, the ratio is well below the cyclical 1929 lows that lead to the Great Depression.
另一种看待低估的贵金属相对于其他风险资产的方法是通过观察相对表现。 商品与标准普尔500指数的比率刚刚达到新的50年低点。 最后一次我们遇到了这样的历史性失衡，我们处于2000年技术和1972年“Nifty Fifty”股票泡沫的顶峰。 如果使用这种关系的简单版本，使用道琼斯工业平均指数，该比率远低于导致大萧条的周期性1929年低点。
Silver, a more speculative version of gold, also looks historically cheap. One way to see this is by comparing it against the total return for broad US stocks. The Russell 3000-to-silver ratio is still near all-time highs. This puts into perspective the incredible opportunity likely ahead of us today and how truly early and undervalued it is. In technical terms, look at the double top formation after a retest of peak tech bubble levels.
白银是一种更具投机性的黄金版本，看起来也很便宜。 一种看待这种情况的方法是将其与广泛美国股票的总回报进行比较。 罗素3000与白银的比率仍接近历史最高水平。 这可以看出今天可能面临的难以置信的机遇，以及它是如何真正早期和低估的。 从技术角度来看，在重新测试高峰科技泡沫水平之后，看看双顶形态。
We also feel very strongly that gold and silver mining stocks are undervalued as the current macro set up seems largely optimistic for precious metals. This entire industry has been through and eight-year bear market with some of these stocks down by over 80% since 2011. Given our strong outlook for a new secular bull market in gold and silver, we have decided to launch a new precious metal long-only strategy focused solely on a selective number of mining stocks to capitalize on this trend. Crescat’s Large Cap, Long-Short, and Global Macro strategies already have significant allocations to precious metals mining stocks. Our goal is to carve out this theme specifically for those who want to tap into it directly.
我们也非常强烈地感受到黄金和白银矿业股票被低估，因为目前的宏观设置似乎对贵金属基本持乐观态度。 整个行业经历了八年熊市，其中部分股票自2011年以来下跌超过80％。鉴于我们对黄金和白银新的长期牛市的强劲前景，我们决定推出新的贵金属长期 - 仅仅针对有选择数量的矿业股票的战略，以利用这一趋势。 Crescat的大型股，长短期和全球宏观策略已经对贵金属矿业股票进行了大量分配。 我们的目标是专门为那些想要直接使用它的人开辟这个主题。
Outlook for Crescat’s Strategies
At Crescat, we are tactical bears based on our macro and fundamental models. We are looking to capitalize on the highly likely downturn in the economy that should be soon upon us. We had a glimpse of what a downturn might look like in the fourth quarter last year. Crescat’s hedge funds profited extremely well during that period as many of our macro themes and positions worked in our favor. We strongly believe that was only a foretaste of what is to come in the markets over the next one to two years on a grander scale. The chart below shows how Crescat’s two hedge funds performed during the worst down markets of the last five years. One can clearly see how increasingly bearishly positioned we have become over the last two years. We remain so today. One can also see how well we have profited from the down markets recently. We believe they have only just started to emerge.
在Crescat，我们是基于宏观和基本模型的战术熊。 我们希望利用应该很快就会出现的极度可能的经济衰退。 我们瞥见了去年第四季度经济衰退的情况。 Crescat的对冲基金在此期间获利非常好，因为我们的许多宏观主题和头寸对我们有利。 我们坚信，这只是对未来一到两年大规模市场的预测。 下图显示了Crescat的两家对冲基金在过去五年中最糟糕的市场中的表现。 人们可以清楚地看到我们在过去两年中变得越来越悲观。 我们今天仍然如此。 人们还可以看到我们最近从低迷市场中获利的情况。 我们相信它们才刚刚开始出现。
In our flagship global macro hedge fund, our most significant exposures today are long precious metals and related miners, net short global stocks including US stocks as well as stocks in China, Hong Kong, Australia, and Canada. The global macro fund is also substantially short the Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar in a risk-controlled, asymmetric trade though laddered put options.
在我们的旗舰全球宏观对冲基金中，我们今天最重要的风险敞口是长期贵金属和相关矿业公司，净空头全球股票，包括美国股票以及中国，香港，澳大利亚和加拿大的股票。 全球宏观基金在风险控制的不对称交易中也大幅缩短人民币和港元，尽管可以选择看跌期权。
我们相信会承担适度的风险以获得强劲的回报。 我们一直在跟踪风险控制，以便在此过程中包含必要的回调。 虽然过去的表现不是未来回报的保证，但在我们所有的策略中，我们之前已经经历了适度的回调，并且总是从他们那里获得大幅回升。 我们非常有信心，我们能够并将很快再次推动新的高水位赛。 诚实地，我们从未对我们面前的机会感到更加兴奋
All Crescat strategies are in the black in July month to date. Being net short in our hedge funds, this is a material development with equity indices pushing to new highs. Market breadth is faltering, so many of our shorts have been working. We believe the risk of being net short today’s market is significantly diminishing. Meanwhile, our precious metals longs have been moving up substantially.
所有Crescat策略在7月份都是黑色的。 作为对冲基金的净空头，这是一个物质发展，股票指数推升至新高。 市场广度步履蹒跚，因此我们的许多短裤一直在努力。 我们认为当今市场净空头的风险正在显着下降。 与此同时，我们的贵金属多头一直在大幅上涨。
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